隨著新年度的腳步越來越近，國內(nèi)棉紗的疲弱行情也是愈演愈烈。并且有很多棉紡廠老板認(rèn)為，下年度市場(chǎng)價(jià)格重心仍會(huì)有較大幅度下滑。8月下旬之后，紡企觀望情緒更濃了，大家都在等，一是等直補(bǔ)細(xì)則落地，二是等行情“落停”。

　　國產(chǎn)紗走貨遲滯，價(jià)格續(xù)跌。8月26日，山東某企業(yè)普梳32S價(jià)格24900元/噸，40S價(jià)格26200元/噸，分別較25日下跌100元/噸、300元/噸。負(fù)責(zé)人介紹，為留住老客戶，價(jià)格仍有200元/噸商談?dòng)嗟亍！坝唵翁倭耍粗鴰齑?*天上漲，心里壓力很大。”這位負(fù)責(zé)人正在為他即將“爆倉”的庫存擔(dān)憂，只能通過不斷降價(jià)吸引客戶采購。8月份以來，他們企業(yè)已下調(diào)了兩次報(bào)價(jià)，下調(diào)幅度在400-600元/噸，但訂單未見明顯增加。據(jù)企業(yè)反映，近期除少數(shù)低支氣流紡銷售尚可之外，其它棉紗的銷售情況都不好。

　　進(jìn)口紗出貨不易，貿(mào)易商打起價(jià)格戰(zhàn)。據(jù)貿(mào)易商介紹，截至8月26日，寧波港A級(jí)印巴紗報(bào)價(jià)24100元/噸，實(shí)際成交價(jià)23900元/噸，越南紗23600元/噸，實(shí)際成交價(jià)23400元/噸，個(gè)別成交價(jià)23200元/噸，大家為去庫存已爭得“頭破血流”，但銷售仍然滯緩。市場(chǎng)估計(jì)，目前青島港、上海港、寧波港、廣州等港口進(jìn)口紗庫存已達(dá)7.5-8.0萬噸，較上月增加1.0-1.5萬噸。

　　目前直補(bǔ)細(xì)則未公布，但這限制不了業(yè)界的豐富想象，他們一致認(rèn)為：新棉價(jià)格肯定比拋儲(chǔ)價(jià)格低，質(zhì)量肯定比儲(chǔ)備棉好。8月中下旬，湖北、新疆棉區(qū)已有棉企開秤，籽棉價(jià)格在3.50元/斤左右，折皮棉成本在152 0173 3840-14700元/噸，預(yù)計(jì)銷售價(jià)格在15200-15500元/噸，這與之前業(yè)界預(yù)測(cè)價(jià)格相差不大。新棉以此價(jià)格上市，應(yīng)該說讓紡企看到了下年度棉價(jià)的“底牌”。

　　原料成本價(jià)格下滑，棉紗價(jià)格繼續(xù)下滑幾乎板上釘釘。由于國家連續(xù)三年收儲(chǔ)，目前國內(nèi)市場(chǎng)除國儲(chǔ)棉外幾乎沒有可用之棉，加之今年內(nèi)地棉花或?qū)⒋蠓鶞p產(chǎn)，而新疆棉可能要到10月底才能運(yùn)輸出疆到達(dá)內(nèi)地紡織廠，如果再要求入庫公檢后憑公檢報(bào)告安排運(yùn)出，那么還要延遲15天左右。也就是說，從8月31日拋儲(chǔ)結(jié)束直至10月底的50-60天時(shí)間里，棉花市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)處于“真空期”，這段時(shí)間棉價(jià)或保持略低于17250元/噸的拋儲(chǔ)價(jià)而又高于新棉大量上市后的15000元/噸左右的價(jià)格，棉紗價(jià)格下跌或有一個(gè)緩沖期，或許這是紡企加緊去高成本庫存的好機(jī)會(huì)。

　　綜上所述，下年度市場(chǎng)利空因素較多，好在目前棉紗市場(chǎng)一直在提前消化利空，因此下年度棉紗價(jià)格下行或?qū)⑹恰败浿憽保髽I(yè)應(yīng)警惕“溫水煮青蛙”，提前做好準(zhǔn)備工作。

With the new year is approaching, the market is also increasingly weak domestic cotton yarn. And there are a lot of cotton spinning factory boss thinks, next year the market price was still there will be a big drop. In late August, textile enterprises wait-and-see sentiment strong, everyone is waiting, a direct subsidy rules landing, two is the market "or stopped".

Domestic yarn shipment delay, prices continued to fall. In August 26th, a Shandong enterprise carding 32S price 24900 yuan / ton, 40S price 26200 yuan / ton, compared to the 25 day down 100 yuan / ton, 300 yuan / ton. The person in charge, to retain old customers, the price is still 200 yuan / ton about. "The order is too small, watching the stock rise day by day, feel great pressure." The responsible person is worried about his upcoming "critical" inventory, only through the continuous price to attract customers purchasing. Since August, they have cut the enterprises offer two times, down in the range of 400-600 yuan / ton, but no significant increase in orders. According to reflect recent enterprises, except for a few low air spinning sales, sales of other cotton yarn are not good.

Import yarn shipment is not easy, traders playing the price war. According to traders, as of August 26th, Ningbo port a Pakistan yarn price 24100 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price of 23900 yuan / ton, Vietnam yarn 23600 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price of 23400 yuan / ton, individual transaction price of 23200 yuan / ton, we go to the inventory has been for "head broken and bleeding", but sales are still slow. Market estimates, at present Qingdao port, Shanghai port, Ningbo port, Guangzhou Port imported yarn inventory has reached 7.5-8.0 million tons, an increase from the previous month 1.0-1.5 million tons.

The direct subsidy rules not released, but the rich imagination which do not limit the industry, they agreed that: cotton price is more than the cast store the price is low, quality is certainly better than cotton reserves. 8 months late, Hubei, Xinjiang region has cotton enterprises balance, seed cotton price in 3.50 yuan / jins, folded cotton cost in 152 0173 3840-14700 yuan / ton, expected sales prices in the 15200-15500 yuan / ton, this is before the industry forecast price difference. The new cotton this price listed, should say to see next year cotton spinning enterprises "".

The cost of raw materials prices decline, cotton prices continued to decline almost That's final. Because the country for three consecutive years of storage, the current domestic market in addition to cotton storage has almost no usable cotton, cotton or mainland and this year will be significantly reduced, and Xinjiang may to the end of 10 to transport out of Xinjiang at inland textile factory, if required by public inspection report in judiciary after an exhausted, then need to delay 15 days. That is to say, from August 31st until the end of 10 at the end of throwing storage 50-60 days, the cotton market in the "vacuum", this time prices or slightly less than 17250 yuan / ton cast store the price and above showed a large number of listed after the 15000 yuan / ton price, cotton prices dropped or a buffer period, perhaps this is a good opportunity to go to the textile enterprise high cost of inventory.

To sum up, more the next year the market bad factors, at present the cotton market has been ahead of time to digest the bad, so the next year cotton prices down or will be "soft landing", but the enterprise should guard against the "warm boiled frog", prepared in advance.