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“托底預案”成棉改政策新亮點

作者:百檢網 時間:2021-12-15 來源:互聯網


???? 為保障目標價格改革試點順利推進,保持新棉上市后市場平穩運行,國家將采取四項綜合措施加強市場調控。一是新棉上市后停止儲備棉投放,為新棉購銷創造良好市場條件。二是做好新棉收購工作,引導企業和農民積*購銷。三是妥善安排進口,鼓勵企業多使用國產棉。四是制定托底預案,當國內市場棉花價格過度下跌、出現“賣難”時,將采取必要措施鼓勵企業入市收購,穩定市場,解決“賣難”。

“今年國內棉花收儲政策退市,加上美棉豐產,國內外棉價年初以來競相走低。而進入9月以后,新棉目標價格直補細則仍未見正式公告,市場因此出現了諸多傳聞,相關消息更是滿天飛揚。”道通期貨棉花**研究員苗玲告訴期貨日報記者,為了宣傳以及更好地貫徹目標價格直補政策,幫助市場正確理解棉市新政策,引導市場理順政策實施后的各方關系,相關部門已經積*地在各地進行了講演,引導棉農積*售棉,讓棉農意識到棉價跌多少政府會補多少。

苗玲分析道,受此影響,加上市場預期棉價會在目標價格政策的引導下加速市場化,鄭棉各合約期價9月1日均出現較大跌幅,1月和5月合約期價當日跌破了152 0173 3840元/噸整數關口,近月11月合約期價跌幅*大。

在鄭棉各合約中,11月合約距離新棉上市*近,因此對政策變動*為敏感。9月3日,國家發改委發文,為保障目標價格改革試點順利推進,保持新棉上市后市場平穩運行,國家將采取四項綜合措施加強市場調控。

“在以上四項市場調控措施中,*大的亮點是‘托底預案’,因為在此之前市場一直對這一問題充滿了猜測,政府確定有托底收購預案,這意味著棉價不可能無止境地跌下去。這將對市場價格、市場心理等產生較大影響。”苗玲說,綜合措施公布后的當日鄭棉期價即出現大幅上漲,尤其11月合約期價漲幅較大。

不過,國家發改委并未明確政府在什么價位入市托底,所以市場要理性對待與理解“托底預案”這項政策。與此同時,在政府要實施的四項市場調控措施中,提及要妥善安排進口,業內人士認為,其中的含義是調控配額資源,進口棉價或將受此拖累走低,國內棉價會向市場化順利過渡,國內外棉價聯動將成為必然。

東亞期貨棉花分析師許亮認為,新棉上市時間已經臨近,棉花目標價格政策改革的各項細則將陸續出臺,政策對棉價的影響日益明朗,隨著“托底預案”等市場調控措施的公布,估計新棉價格不會因陳棉結轉庫存仍然過高而繼續走低,預計新棉價格跌破152 0173 3840元/噸的的概率較小。

目前,國內棉市結轉庫存偏高,但絕大部分集中在政府手里。新棉上市后,在國儲棉暫停拋售的情況下,加上政府對進口棉花資源的合理調控,國內棉市的供應壓力可能沒有市場此前預期的那么大。如果新棉上市后棉農惜售,那么短期內供應壓力還會進一步減弱。此外,棉花目標價格的直補均價以9—11月的市場成交均價為基準,這可能會加劇棉農惜售的心理。


據記者了解,近日國內棉價和進口棉成本之間的價差在縮小,再考慮到國內紡織企業棉花庫存較低的現狀,國內棉市因目標價格政策實施所出現的市場回歸行情可能已接近尾聲。另據了解,農發行已為今年新棉收購準備的600億元資金,將繼續發揮棉花收購資金供應主渠道的作用。轉載請注明來自中國百檢網棉花網 www.szlhsb.com
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In order to ensure the smooth progress of the pilot target price reform, maintain Xinmian listed after the smooth operation of the market, the state will take four measures to strengthen market regulation. One is the Xinmian listed after the cessation of cotton reserves put, creating a good market conditions for the purchase and sale of cotton. Two is to do a good job in the acquisition of new work, guide enterprises and farmers to purchase and sale. Three is to properly arrange import, encourage enterprises to use more domestic cotton. Four is the development support plan, when the domestic market price of cotton fell over, "difficult to sell", will take the necessary measures to encourage enterprises to purchase, to stabilize the market, to solve the problem of "difficult to sell".

"Domestic cotton Shouchu policy exit this year, plus the United States cotton high yield, both at home and abroad since beginning to lower prices. But after entering in September, Xinmian target price subsidies rules are still no formal announcement, the market there are many rumors, related news is all over the sky flying." The senior researcher Miao Ling told futures cotton futures Daily reporter, in order to promote and better implement the target price subsidy policy, helping the market to correctly understand the cotton city new policy, guide the market to straighten out the policy after the implementation of the relationship between the parties, the relevant departments have been actively conducted around the speech, to guide farmers to actively sell cotton, cotton farmers realize cotton prices fell much government can fill how many.

Miao Ling analysis, affected by this, coupled with the market price of cotton in the target price policy under the guidance of the market is expected to accelerate, Zheng cotton price of the contract period September daily average of 1 appear larger decline, in January and May the contract price fell below 152 0173 3840 yuan / ton mark integer, in recent months November contract price of maximal amplitude.

In Zheng cotton each contract, the November contract distance Xinmian listed recently, so the policy change is the most sensitive. In September 3rd, the national development and Reform Commission issued a document, in order to ensure the smooth progress of the pilot target price reform, maintain Xinmian listed after the smooth operation of the market, the state will take four measures to strengthen market regulation.

"In more than four of the market regulation and control measures, the biggest bright spot is the 'backing plans', because before the market has been on this issue is full of speculation, the government determine the support purchase plan, which means that prices may not endless fall. This will have a greater impact on the market price, the market psychology." Miao Ling said, the comprehensive measures after the publication of the Zheng Mianqi price is rising sharply, especially the November contract price increase larger.

However, the national development and Reform Commission did not clear the government in what price market support, so the market rational treatment and understanding "support plan" this policy. At the same time, in the four market government regulation and control measures to implement, mention should properly arrange the import, the personage inside course of study thinks, the meaning is the regulation of quota resources, import prices or will this hit, domestic cotton prices will smooth the transition to the market, domestic and international cotton price linkage will become inevitable.

East Asian cotton futures analyst Xu Liang thinks, Xinmian listed time is approaching, the rules for the reform of cotton target price policy will be introduced, the policy impact on the price of cotton is increasingly clear, with "announced measures to regulate and control the market support plan", estimated price will not because of Chen cotton nucotn carryout remains too high and continues to decline, cotton is expected prices below 152 0173 3840 yuan / ton of small probability.

At present, domestic cotton city carryover is high, but most concentrated in the hands of the government. The new cotton after the listing, in the cotton storage suspended selling situation, together with the government's reasonable regulation of imported cotton resources, domestic cotton market supply pressure may not have the market had expected so much. If the listing of new cotton farmers sell after, so the short-term supply pressure will weaken further. In addition, the target price of cotton subsidies fold to 9 - November market transactions fold as the benchmark, which may exacerbate the cotton trading psychological.

Understand according to the reporter, recently between domestic and imported cotton, cotton prices cost spreads are narrow, and considering the status of cotton inventory low domestic textile enterprises, domestic cotton city with the target price policy implementation of the market the market return may be nearing completion. It is understood, farming issue for 6400-101-7153 yuan of funds this year cotton to cotton, will continue to play the role of the main channel of funds supply. Reprinted from Chinese downwind cotton network www.szlhsb.com?

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