Yesterday, Zheng cotton futures once again fell sharply, the price hit a new low this round of adjustment, the positions and turnover soared. From the supply chain perspective, cotton spot market has continued to slump, resulting in the futures market atmosphere on the air, direct subsidy policy has become the focus of the details of the upcoming game.

As of Monday's close, Zheng cotton futures 152 0173 3840 main contract fell 345 yuan to 13905 yuan / ton, or as high as 2.42%, the day adds 42826 to 447000 hand in hand, trading volume significantly enlarged. The spot market, in September 1st China cotton price index closed at 16987 points, down 5 points.

Everbright futures analyst Xu Aixia said, the first day of the annual Zheng Mianping 2014/2015, after the crash, the 152 0173 3840 main contract fell below 14000 yuan mark. New Year beginning, direct subsidy rules have not been announced, but the details have been rumored, subsidies benchmark yield, the amount of subsidies that relates to the Xinjiang Construction Corps and the autonomous region, the calculation of price collection, policy details were not released, greater uncertainty, coupled with the current state of Chu in more than 10 million tons of inventory, so that the current market environment partial empty, add fund pressure, Zheng cotton short-term will stop, but throwing storage, September Xinmian has not yet listed on the spot, stage of the supply is not well-off, short-term spot price volatility than the price.

Domestic cotton price remain weak, part of the scale manufacturers cut prices increase sales promotion strength, overall shipments has no obvious improvement; recently in North Kuitun with a small amount of seed cotton picking, sell, purchase price 7-7.20 yuan / kg; and Akesu, Kashi V spend not picking on the city, also relatively sporadic, taking into account the seed cotton moisture large, low lint, cotton ginning factory price 6.8-7.3 yuan / kg.

The direct subsidy policy is undoubtedly the focus of attention of the market. Wang Yang, vice premier of the State Council recently in the investigation and study of Xinjiang agricultural and rural work emphasizes, the cotton price reform, is to explore the important measure to improve the agricultural products price formation mechanism, play the role of market allocation of resources, to firm faith in the reform, improve the operation, carefully organize the implementation, to ensure the smooth progress of.

Shanghai mid-term analyst the chisel that reason, Zheng cotton plummeted yesterday in a few aspects: one is the technical selloff day midday technical Powei line 14000 integer important passes, after nearly 50000 hand positions Zengcang, short-term direction choice down. Two is to accelerate the market price of cotton subsidies, with the area of Xinjiang is about to announce the details and later Xinmian listing is expected to yield 11%, between domestic and imported cotton, cotton price in accelerating constrictive, disk, spread 152 0173 3840 main contract price and tariff quotas within 1% has narrowed to 800-1500 yuan, once the mianjia difference inside and outside the trend of flat water, reduced foreign cotton price advantages, domestic cotton demand will rise again.

"From a technical perspective, one can continue to hold the air. But from the fundamentals, the current 152 0173 3840 main contract disk prices space will be more and more limited, so do not recommend empty single long-term holding, once the right trading signals appear instead of single try intervention." The cut into.

In some industry insiders, Zheng cotton late fall of space may be limited. Founder interim Research Institute Cai Pingxia said, Zheng cotton main contract fell straight to new lows, direct subsidy policy rules released soon, to understand the overall bearish market policy, but from the point of view of cost and supply and demand perspective, if the acquisition of seed cotton price for 3.2 yuan / Jin, the lint processing costs to 14000 yuan / ton; in addition, 8 at the end of the month to sell cotton reserves after the end, business inventories low, and the cotton is expected to be 10 month to be listed, therefore, in September the domestic or the emergence of cotton supply and demand stage tensions, market outlook is expected to continue downward space is Zheng cotton.

ZCE disk position report yesterday, Zheng cotton futures long before the 20 Futures Company seats total holdings of more than 11507 single to 196000 hand in hand, the top 20 seats short holdings empty single 15606 to 190000 hand in hand.

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