儲(chǔ)備棉投放結(jié)束，累計(jì)上市總量152 0173 3840.89萬噸，累計(jì)總成交265.40萬噸。上周河北、山東棉區(qū)有農(nóng)民開始零星采摘新棉，從目前情況來看， 新棉質(zhì)量較好。上周中國(guó)棉花價(jià)格指數(shù)CC Index 3128B周均價(jià)16996元/噸，較前一周下降53元。近期外棉價(jià)格受紡織廠買盤支撐略有反彈，但國(guó)內(nèi)人民幣報(bào)價(jià)仍小幅下跌。

　　二、市場(chǎng)動(dòng)態(tài)

　　1、儲(chǔ)備棉投放：累計(jì)總成交265萬噸

　　儲(chǔ)備棉投放*后一周成交9.38萬噸，較前一周增加0.62萬噸。雖然距離新棉上市仍有一段時(shí)間，但企業(yè)并沒有明顯增加競(jìng)拍量，據(jù)了解，企業(yè)為 避免風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍不敢增加庫(kù)存，有企業(yè)表示庫(kù)存能維持到新棉上市，但更多企業(yè)表示會(huì)采用壓縮產(chǎn)能，增加使用外棉或者使用化纖替代品等方式來維持生產(chǎn)到新棉上市。

　　截止到8月29日，儲(chǔ)備棉投放累計(jì)上市總量152 0173 3840.89萬噸，累計(jì)成交總量265.40萬噸，成交比例20.25%。其中，國(guó)產(chǎn)棉累計(jì)上市 1231.62萬噸，累計(jì)成交249.14萬噸，成交比例20.23%。進(jìn)口棉累計(jì)上市79.28萬噸，累計(jì)成交16.26萬噸，成交比例20.51%。

　　2、現(xiàn)貨掛牌交易：均價(jià)漲跌不一 軋花廠觀望情緒較重

　　當(dāng)周現(xiàn)貨掛牌交易周成交130670噸，較前一周增加58700噸，成交放量。其中MA1411、MA1412以及MA1502成交較好，其余 合同相對(duì)清淡。截止上周訂貨量27110噸，較前一周增加1920噸， 其中MA1501為主要訂貨合同，訂貨13850噸，此外，MA1412訂貨7670噸。截止上周現(xiàn)貨掛牌交易業(yè)務(wù)棉數(shù)量15671噸，較前一周增加 1960噸。

　　從價(jià)格上看，當(dāng)周現(xiàn)貨掛牌交易各合同漲跌不一，其中MA1409周末收盤價(jià)漲125至16645，MA1410跌235至15185，MA1411跌110至14500，其余合同變化不大。

　　本周直補(bǔ)細(xì)則仍未公布，目前市場(chǎng)觀望情緒較重，軋花廠普遍決定在9月中下旬開始收購(gòu)，新棉上市進(jìn)度要較往年推遲。

　　3、現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)：河北、山東已有采摘

　　山東德州地區(qū)新棉8月15日開始吐絮，較往年提前5天左右，如后期無連續(xù)陰雨天氣，棉花的質(zhì)量和產(chǎn)量情況較為樂觀。目前當(dāng)?shù)匾延忻揶r(nóng)零星采摘。 河北近期天氣良好，邢臺(tái)、滄州、冀州等地棉農(nóng)也開始少量采摘。有企業(yè)表示近期將開秤小批量收購(gòu)、試軋，同時(shí)看看現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)情況如何。

　　相對(duì)內(nèi)地，新疆棉花成熟略晚，目前未有采摘。近日南疆阿克蘇等地的一些農(nóng)業(yè)部門、種子公司技術(shù)人員紛紛到沙雅、阿瓦提、新和、柯坪等地棉區(qū)測(cè) 產(chǎn)，預(yù)計(jì)一周左右結(jié)束。目前看來，阿克蘇、喀什等地大部分棉區(qū)棉花長(zhǎng)勢(shì)與去年持平甚至稍好，如果9-10月下旬前不出現(xiàn)大的天氣災(zāi)害，農(nóng)民豐收的預(yù)期較 強(qiáng)。

　　4、紡織市場(chǎng)：純棉紗市場(chǎng)無起色 我國(guó)進(jìn)口越南棉紗增多

　　上周純棉紗整體價(jià)格仍較低沉，大部分盡力保價(jià)維穩(wěn)，但規(guī)模廠家不斷下調(diào)價(jià)格，拋貨清理庫(kù)存，市場(chǎng)無明顯起色。但是有企業(yè)反應(yīng)，在寧波一帶，部分 規(guī)格棉紗貨源較少，甚至有部分加價(jià)現(xiàn)象。8月29日中國(guó)紗線價(jià)格指數(shù)CY Index OEC10S為15680元/噸，CY Index C32S為24425元/噸，CY Index JC40S為29090元/噸。

　　這半年來中國(guó)進(jìn)口棉紗市場(chǎng)的格局也發(fā)生了明顯變動(dòng)，7月份，對(duì)越南棉紗進(jìn)口量超越印度成為中國(guó)進(jìn)口紗第二大來源國(guó)，進(jìn)口量達(dá)3.43萬噸，占中 國(guó)進(jìn)口棉紗總量的22%。之前印巴兩國(guó)棉紗平分天下的日子也變成了印巴越三分天下。進(jìn)口棉本周詢盤繼續(xù)好轉(zhuǎn)，8月29日進(jìn)口棉紗價(jià)格指數(shù)FCY Index C21S港口提貨價(jià)21085元/噸，F(xiàn)CY Index C32S港口提貨價(jià)23380元/噸，F(xiàn)CY Index JC32S港口提貨價(jià)25590元/噸。

　　5、國(guó)際市場(chǎng)：期棉反彈受阻 印度棉全額通關(guān)量增加

　　上周ICE期棉反彈受阻，新年度供應(yīng)寬松格局基本形成，美國(guó)干熱的南部將迎來降雨，這將緩解市場(chǎng)對(duì)干燥天氣的擔(dān)憂，同時(shí)印度季風(fēng)帶來了更多的降 雨有利于棉花生長(zhǎng)，雖然新一期美棉出口銷售數(shù)據(jù)利好，周四期棉價(jià)格承壓下挫。至8月13日，印度種植面積在1.84億畝。同比增加9.77%。至8月26 日美棉新花坐果率為90%，吐絮率19%。8.15-8.21一周美國(guó)凈簽約出口本年度陸地棉56177噸;裝運(yùn)21931噸。

　　近期外棉價(jià)格受低價(jià)紡織廠買盤支撐從62美分反彈到66美分，但是國(guó)內(nèi)棉價(jià)一直處于偏弱狀態(tài)，國(guó)內(nèi)大型棉商美金報(bào)價(jià)反彈，配額價(jià)值下滑，而且價(jià) 格繼續(xù)下落趨勢(shì)，國(guó)內(nèi)人民幣報(bào)價(jià)繼續(xù)小幅下跌，尤其印度棉40%通關(guān)量加大。印度棉中期花一般質(zhì)量的價(jià)格為16300元/噸左右，質(zhì)量較好的價(jià)格在 16600-16700元/噸。

　　三、宏觀要聞

　　1、1-7月份，全國(guó)規(guī)模以上工業(yè)企業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)利潤(rùn)總額33491.6億元，同比增長(zhǎng)11.7%，增速比1-6月份提高0.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn);實(shí)現(xiàn)主營(yíng)活動(dòng)利潤(rùn)31257.4億元，同比增長(zhǎng)11.2%，增速比1-6月份提高0.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

　　7月份，規(guī)模以上工業(yè)企業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)利潤(rùn)總額4823.3億元，同比增長(zhǎng)13.5%，增速比6月份回落4.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

　　1-7月份，在41個(gè)工業(yè)大類行業(yè)中，34個(gè)行業(yè)利潤(rùn)總額同比增長(zhǎng)，3個(gè)行業(yè)持平，4個(gè)行業(yè)下降。其中紡織業(yè)增長(zhǎng)10.4%。

One, market overview

Cotton reserves put an end, has listed a total of 152 0173 38408900 tons, the total turnover of 2654000 tons. Last week Hebei, Shandong cotton farmers began sporadic picking cotton, from the current situation, the new cotton quality is better. Last week China cotton price index CC Index 3128B week the average price of 16996 yuan / ton, compared with the previous week, down 53 yuan. The cotton textile factory price by buying support rebounded slightly, but the domestic currency price is still slightly lower.

Two, the market dynamics

1, cotton reserves put: total turnover of 2650000 tons

Cotton reserves put last week sold 93800 tons, an increase over the previous week 6200 tons. Although the distance Xinmian listed still have a period of time, but the enterprise did not significantly increase the amount of the auction, it is understood, the enterprise in order to avoid risk is not increased inventory, the enterprise that inventory can maintain Xinmian listed, but more enterprises will use compression capacity, increase the use of cotton or chemical fiber substitutes to maintain production to the listing of new cotton.

By the end of August 29th, the cumulative total market cotton reserves put 152 0173 38408900 tons, accumulative total turnover 2654000 tons, turnover ratio of 20.25%. Among them, domestic cotton has listed 12316200 tons, the cumulative turnover 2491400 tons, turnover ratio of 20.23%. Imported cotton has listed 792800 tons, the cumulative turnover 162600 tons, turnover ratio of 20.51%.

2, spot transactions fold rise: not a gin wait-and-see mood is heavy

When the week spot trading week sold 130670 tons, an increase over the previous week 58700 tons, the transaction volume. The MA1411, MA1412 and MA1502 were better, the rest of the contract relative light. By the end of last week the order quantity of 27110 tons, a 1920 increase over the previous week tons, and MA1501 is the main contract, order 13850 tons 7670 tons, in addition, MA1412. By the end of last week the spot listing of transactions cotton 15671 tons, an increase over the previous week 1960 tons.

From the price point of view, when the week spot transactions the contract price is not a weekend, the MA1409 closing price 125 to 16645, MA1410 fell 235 to 15185, MA1411 fell 110 to 14500, the rest of the contract change.

This week the direct subsidy rules have not been announced, the market wait-and-see mood is heavy, cotton ginning factory generally decided to purchase in the mid to late 9, Xinmian listed schedule to relatively in former years later.

3, the spot market: Hebei, Shandong has been picking

Shandong Dezhou area began in August 15th compared with the previous year cotton boll, 5 days in advance, such as the late without continuous overcast and rainy weather, quality and yield of cotton is more optimistic. At present, the local has been sporadic picking cotton. Hebei's recent good weather, Xingtai, Cangzhou, Jizhou and other places also started a small cotton picking. Enterprise has said it will begin business acquisition, small batch trial rolling, at the same time, have a look how to spot market situation.

Compared with the mainland, Xinjiang cotton mature late, at present no picking. Recently in Akesu to some agricultural sector, The Seed Company and technical personnel have to Shaya, Awati, and the new, and cotton yield, expected a week end. Currently, Akesu, Kashi and other places most cotton growing flat with last year even slightly better, if there are no major weather disasters 9-10 month ago, farmers harvest expected a strong.

4, the textile market: pure cotton yarn market no improvement in China increased Vietnam imports cotton yarn

Last week, pure cotton yarn overall price is still low, most try to price stability, but the scale manufacturers continue to cut prices, goods market clearing inventory, no significant improvement. But the enterprise response, in the Ningbo area, some specifications of cotton goods less, even some increase phenomenon. In August 29th China yarn price index CY Index OEC10S for 15680 yuan / ton, CY Index C32S is 24425 yuan / ton, CY Index JC40S for 29090 yuan / ton.

In the first half of this year to China imported cotton market structure has also undergone a significant change, in July, the Vietnam cotton yarn imports beyond India to become the second largest source country Chinese import yarn, the import volume of 34300 tons, accounting for 22% of the total import of cotton yarn. Before India and Pakistan cotton shared world day has become more of the three parts of India and pakistan. The import of cotton this week inquiry continues to improve, in August 29th imports of cotton price index FCY Index C21S port delivery price of 21085 yuan / ton, FCY Index C32S port delivery price of 23380 yuan / ton, FCY Index JC32S port delivery price of 25590 yuan / ton.

5, the international market: cotton futures rebounded blocked India Cotton Full clearance volume increased

Last week ICE period cotton rebounded blocked, the new annual supply loose pattern is formed basically, USA dry South will usher in rainfall, which will ease the fears of dry weather, while India monsoon brought more rain is conducive to the growth of cotton, although a new US cotton export sales data is good, Thursday cotton price pressure fell. To August 13th, planting area of 184000000 acres in India. An increase of 9.77%. In August 26 the new cotton flowering and fruit setting rate is 90%, boll opening rate 19%. 8.15-8.21 a week USA net signed this year cotton export shipment of 21931 tons of 56177 tons.

The cotton price by buying support low-cost textile factory from 62 cents to 66 cents a rebound, but the domestic cotton prices has been in a weak state, domestic dollar large cotton bidding rebound, quota to decline in value, and the price continues to fall, domestic prices in Renminbi continued to decline slightly, especially India cotton 40% clearance volume increased. The mid India cotton flower quality for the price of 16300 yuan / tons, quality good price in the 16600-16700 yuan / ton.

Three, the macro news

1, 1-7 month, the above scale industrial enterprises realized profits